HPI Sunday Update 3 Mar 2019

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Geopolitical

  • China trade tariffs the largest influence and continues unchanged other than hot air. The White House will delay the 1 Mar deadline for additional tariffs.
  • The North Korea bro-mance between Trump and Kim continues to deliver nothing.
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez challenges The Babe for malapropisms, parrots for mindless verbal repetition and the mental capacity of Sarah Palin. "A living wage isn't a gift, it's a right", "What the Bronx and Queens needs is Medicare for all, tuition-free public college, a federal jobs guarantee, and criminal-justice reform."
  • Continued energy drain battling entrenched Democrats for a border wall as Pelosi digs in her heels. btw, she seemed to have problems with her dentures during the State of the Union. I cannot imagine the gold-plated health plan our elite have voted for themselves does not cover that. Shameful.
  • Ivanka has the self-proclaimed hardest job in the world as the first daughter. Right, sucks to be you.
  • Can Virginia's political elite find any more controversial things to do? Black face, KKK, handing out raw cotton to black students ...
  • Even worse, the New Orleans Zulu Social Aid and Pleasure Club who traditional paint their faces black for Mardi Gras parades are under fire. Paradoxically, it is mainly the black members of the club who paint their faces ... black.
  • You have to give Cohen credit for standing up during his testimony. And then give SNL credit for accuracy in imitation.
  • Trump at CPAC: what a hugger!
  • And, in a personal note, Walmart is phasing out my dream job: Walmart greeter.
  • Sheila Jackson Lee will reintroduce a bill that would create a committee to look at financial compensation for blacks. We really need to get busy on shutting that down as being too exclusive.

    Our country, along with all the others at that time in history, was founded on exploiting different races and cultures. If we are to go for reparations, it must include the Chinese who died building our railroads, the Irish, Italians, Polish, Hungarians, and Germans who were denied work outside of agriculture and menial labor, and particularly the American Indians who were denied, well, everything.

    Hopefully we can convince the Germans to do something similar for their historic sins, the British for killing millions in crusades and empire building while stealing pretty much everything that wasn't nailed down.

    The Russians own all the -stan countries something.

    The Spanish for the Inquisitions.

    And who can forget the pain inflicted by the Vikings?

    I am confident that each of the countries in the Middle-East owes the others something for centuries of war and enslavement.

    This is definitely something to get behind on a global level, hopefully spearheaded by our new (and nearly Kelly Rippa cute!) Heather Nauert, sporting the strong international diplomacy credentials she developed as a news talking head at Fox News.
  • Finally, the new girls club in congress (or is that a Sorority?) is looking forward to taking the Presidency in 2020. Most of them are pretty enough (sorry, still required even for the male contenders: Lincoln would never have gotten to the primary), some of them are crazy enough (how 'bout that Klobuchar, right?) and all of them are smart enough (well, Oprah is at least clever enough).

Markets

  • US Equities: Slightly higher for the week. With the end of February showing the S&P up 11.5% for the year, the best 2 month start since 1987 (ah, but 1987 had the October crash, right?). Need to break 2800 or fall back.
  • EAFE: up 0.2% for the week; up 8.9% for the year.
  • Gold: down 2% for the week; would like to see it hold the 1300 level otherwise 1250 is possible.
  • Dollar: upbeat Q4 GDP surprise, dollar up.
  • Bonds: Down 0.5% for the week; up 0.6% for the year.
  • Oil: Down about 2.6% for the week; up 22.5% for the year. Down through 52 will likely lead to a break through 50 into the mid-40s.

What it means

  • Socialism may be in your future if you do not vote.
  • Consider protection on oil related investments if WTI drops through $52.
  • Consumer: Looks to be strong overall; heading for tax refund season, a big buying time; caution due to the federal shutdown impact from 1Q.
  • Financial: Continues to move weakly. The talking heads continue to talk it up to no avail. Some of the mid-caps are doing ok, FinTech is strong and carrying the rest. Otherwise not so much.
  • Health Care: Pockets of goodness and likely some opportunities. Socialist agenda caught attention last week on the 'Medicare for all' bit, hitting some very strong names very hard. Get them while they are on sale.
  • Industrials: Aerospace is carrying this Sector and doing well.
  • Transports: Railroads are performing well.
  • Utilities: Look to be at a double top in XLU; nothing outstanding.
"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. Its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery" Winston Churchill

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